A UK ministry of defense report lists all the possible risks and shocks of the future from neutron bombs to autonomous combat robots to the new middle-class marxism and climate warming
In a report, the UK ministry of defense has attempted to identify the "global strategic trends" for the next 30 years. The development concepts and doctrine centre (DCDC), which is responsible for the report, is thinking futuristically. The british military must also prepare for the consequences of climate change, for which there is convincing evidence "convincing evidence" but also the militarization of space, with the possibility of EMP weapons or chips entering people’s brains.
Rear admiral chris parry, the head of the DCDC, explained to be on the safe side that while the trends mentioned in the report were the most likely developments, there were many uncertainties because there were many variables to ame and everything was interrelated. For many trends, only uncertain evidence was available, and some were based on political decisions that could change quickly. Parry is almost philosophical when he muses that while the future is mostly a consequence of developments in the past and present, the "power of chance and surprise" remains a constant. The 100-page report deals with just about everything that can be imagined. Attempts are made to determine the probability of the scenarios and to estimate alternative developments. One thing is certain: in the next 30 years, all aspects of human "all aspects of human life will change at an unprecedented speed" will change.
At the very beginning, the consequences of climate change are discussed, for which there is convincing evidence "convincing evidence" . Desertification is increasing, while other areas have been flooded. We must expect more severe storms, floods and other natural disasters. In a densely populated world, climate change will alter access to water, food and habitable land, and diseases will spread. A high degree of "politicization" of the ie. The most unstable regions will be those affected by different negative environmental factors. The struggle for resources will become more intense, which will also lead to large-scale migration flows and rapid migratory movements. Humanitarian interventions are becoming more frequent, and resources, especially oil, gas and other mineral resources, must increasingly be secured, according to the military "secured" .
Regions with multiple environmental stressors
Increasingly multicultural countries are shifting their identities, in part through the networking that virtual communities or a virtual diaspora make possible. Orientation to nationality or origin as a social and state bonding agent is weakening, while personal identity and interests are making affiliation to a local community dependent on certain conditions. Problems have been caused primarily by overly coarse cultural differences (super-diversity) and eroding civic values, by political extremism, and by women and men being more likely to be the. Societies still dominated by men. "Burger journalists", bloggers and websites that disseminate news in real time and unfiltered around the world weakened the mainstream media and, according to the militars, led to a "real-time news environment", that weakens editorial scrutiny. For warfare in particular, the environment is complicated by the media in all forms influencing public opinion.
Globalization continues to increase, as does the gap between the rich and the poor. This will be particularly evident in the cities. A quarter of the world’s poor will live in cities, which continue to grow explosively, especially in the third world. 60 percent of people will live in cities in 30 years – increasingly in slums. The inequalities will cause riots, crime and conflicts and may lead to the resurgence of anti-capitalist ideologies and religious, anarchist or nihilist movements, as well as "populism and the return of marxism". The middle class is particularly susceptible to a new marxism because of its increasing distance from the super-rich and its transnational transformation into the middle-class proletariat "middle class proletariat" middle class proletariat.
Within 30 years, he said, a megacity would likely become uncontrollable. It can also be a series of cities, which can also lead to the collapse of entire states. This could lead to ongoing urban battles and require new military strategies to restore control.
China will become more important as an economic and military power, the USA will have to change its policy and adapt to a multipolar world with players like russia, brazil, india, indonesia, etc., but anti-americanism will remain for a long time. But anti-americanism will remain for a long time. Transnational crime and international terrorism will remain the downside of globalization and global inequality; moreover, there will be more states, regions and cities that are not subject to state control and that threaten world security. North korea will "explode", the middle east will remain unstable. The conflict between india and pakistan will continue to pose dangers, the USA will break away from europe, which will stagnate despite EU expansions. The united nations will become less important if the reforms fail.
The new conflict zones are in cyberspace, in the rough cities and in near space
The military is facing hard times in aging societies because there are fewer and fewer young people to recruit. The consequence will be to replace soldiers as much as possible with techniques, to recruit them from abroad or to hire soldiers. Women will increasingly occupy all positions in armies, which could also lead to complications with allies and enemies. Where economic conditions are poor, defense spending will fall, and the military’s position in rich and aging societies will be undermined by the erosion of values and the lack of a defined, understandable military "defined, understandable military threat" weak.
By 2035, the british ministry of defense expects the existence of EMP (electromagnetic pulse) weapons, which can be used to specifically disable all communication systems in a certain area, for example in a city. The further development of neutron bombs is also considered possible. With them, the infrastructure is preserved, while everything living is eliminated. It is obviously remembered that "in an increasingly densely populated world, neutron bombs" neutron bombs could become a suitable means for rapid and comprehensive "ethnic cleansing" . Armed robots or other systems with weapons that kill without control by humans will create legal and moral problems. Chemical, biological or nuclear weapons could be used with them.
In general, there will be cheaper and more lethal weapons in the future. This will have a particular impact in unstable regions where the military is not strong, but will also lead to a narrowing of the gap between countries with highly trained troops and developing states or non-state armed groups. Weapons of mass destruction will also proliferate.
Technically, the first nano-bots will be realized from 2020, biotechnologically, there will be implanted chips that improve cognitive abilities such as memory, and prostheses or new sensors will also improve the cognitive performance of humans. Chips are also expected to be able to feed all kinds of information directly into the brain. One also relies on further gross advances in pharmacology, genetic engineering and the use of stem cells. Otherwise, one expects the expansion of network technologies and the use of cognitive strategies for their control, improvement and self-repair. The increasing use of artificial intelligence will be able to replace humans, but at the same time it will be an entry point for criminals and terrorists. However, the technical superiority between the industrialized countries and the developing countries will decrease. And the militaries expect the arrival of a surveillance society with technological progress "surveillance society", with which civil liberties will shrink.
Wars between states are hardly to be feared anymore. Civil wars, social conflicts, riots, terrorism and criminal gangs will be the main risks, blurring military and other social dimensions. Conflicts are to take place mainly in new "areas" in cyberspace, in outer space and in large cities. In addition, countries will secure more and more systems in underground facilities or embed them in civilian infrastructure.
And suddenly and unexpectedly, many "shocks" will emerge: a collapse of the global financial system, all of africa as a "failed" a catastrophe in china, secessionist movements in the U.S., a revolt of the young against the old, international networks of cities that undermine the sovereignty of states, or the end of the fish supply due to empty fishing, which would result in the loss of mankind’s largest source of protein. Also possible would be a coalition of terrorist groups that could emerge after the next generational change among islamist terrorists. Nationalists, religious extremists, and radical environmentalists could form such a worldwide "coalition of the willing" .